Why the AfD Won't Win in 2025, But 2029 Could Get Wild

As Germany approaches its snap federal election on February 23, all eyes are on the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Polls show the party at 20%, a sharp rise from its 10.3% share in 2021, and its recent strong performances in eastern states like Thuringia and Saxony have sparked widespread discussion. Could the AfD actually win control of the Bundestag? Not this time. It’s virtually impossible. Germany’s political system and the established Brandmauer (firewall) against the AfD make a victory highly unlikely. But by 2029? That’s when things could get interesting.

No Allies, No Path to Power

Germany’s electoral system doesn’t make winning easy. To form a government, a party needs 316 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag. Even at around 20%, the AfD is projected to secure only 120-150 seats. That’s far from a majority. In 2021, the SPD won 25.7% of the vote but still needed to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP to govern. The AfD would face an even tougher battle, as it lacks potential partners. Every major party (CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and even the BSW) has ruled out working with the AfD, citing its "extreme positions."

The AfD’s anti-immigration rhetoric and ties to groups monitored by Germany’s intelligence agencies (among others) isolated the party. The CDU, led by Friedrich Merz and currently polling at around 30%, has repeatedly vowed to maintain the Brandmauer against the AfD. This firewall held firm in Thuringia last year, where the AfD won 32.8% of the vote but was unable to govern because no other party would cooperate. A similar scenario is expected in the 2025 federal election.

Nationally, the AfD’s support has plateaued around 21%, according to a Forsa poll from February 21. While the party dominates in the east, with over 30% support in states like Saxony, it struggles to gain traction in the west, where the majority of Germany’s population resides. Issues like immigration—highlighted by recent attacks in Mannheim, Solingen and Munich—give the AfD a boost, but too many people in Germany believe the AfD is too radical.

A Crowded Field

German politics is literally a (complex) puzzle. The CDU/CSU is projected to win 200-220 seats, while the SPD and Greens split the left-leaning vote. Smaller parties like FDP (around 5%) further fragment the field. Coalition-building is the norm. No party has won an outright majority since the 1950s. A CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens coalition appears far more likely than the AfD finding a willing partner. Even Friedrich Merz’s CDU, which shares some of the AfD’s "tough-on-immigration" stance, faces challenges in forming a coalition. Aligning with the Greens would dilute his policies on border control and economic issues, and the CDU's notorious difficulty with coalition compromises suggests much of the agenda would remain deadlocked.

Merz’s CDU currently leads with 30% support and is projected to secure 208 direct mandates. While the party would still need coalition partners, its stronger base gives it a clearer path to power than the AfD, which is projected to win just 50 direct mandates.

2029 Will Be More Interesting

The AfD isn’t poised to win in 2025. The combination of Germany’s electoral system, the Brandmauer, and the party’s limited appeal in the west will keep it in check. The CDU is better positioned to lead, even if coalition negotiations dilute its agenda. But 2029 could be a different story. If immigration remains an issue (and it will), the economy falters, or Merz’s leadership falters, the AfD could gain ground. Yet, the politician in charge, likely from the CDU or its coalition partners, will not learn the lesson from this cycle. Instead of addressing the root concerns fueling the AfD’s rise, particularly immigration, they will double down, taking in even more people under the banner of humanitarianism or economic necessity, further stoking public discontent and setting the stage for an even stronger AfD election result.

On February 23, the AfD will make headlines, but it won’t make history. Germany isn’t ready to hand the keys to them (yet).

Image source: Screenshot/www.afd.de